Posted by Errol Pierre
It’s Healthcare, Stupid!
James Carville famously coined the phrase “The Economy, Stupid!” while he was a campaign strategist for the 1992 Clinton Presidential campaign. Fast-forward to 2012 and for good reason both campaigns seemed to take heed to Carville’s advice. For good reason, the unemployment rate hovers around 8%. On top of that 40% of the unemployed have been jobless for more than 6 months. The labor force participation is barely 64%. Lastly, more than 8 million people last month were employed only part-time specifically due to economic reasons.
However, there seemed to be an undercurrent of Healthcare specific issues in this election that never really surfaced or was given its due attention. Many of these issues revealed themselves in the exit polling of the most contentious battle ground states.
Obamacare & Florida
16% of the U.S. population lacks health coverage. Obamacare would provide substantial subsidies to individuals that otherwise could not afford insurance. Even though Mitt Romney has proven experience with health care by being the first Governor to ever pass universal healthcare legislation in a state, he ran to repeal President Obama’s healthcare bill even though it closely mimicked the Massachusetts bill Romney himself signed into law just 3 years prior.
Florida has the highest uninsured rate and uninsured population of any battleground state standing at 20% and 4 million people respectively. Over 90% of the uninsured population falls below the 500% federal poverty level ($55,000 for an individual). In Florida roughly 50% of the electorate earns below $55,000 a year. Exit polling showed Obama carried 60% of that population with Romney winning only 40%.
Auto Bailout & Ohio
November 18, 2012 will mark the 4 year anniversary of Mitt Romney’s infamous New York Times Op-Ed entitled Let Detroit Go Bankrupt. Romney called for a managed bankruptcy for General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler standing in strong opposition to a pure bailout. He also called for the heads of the companies to step down and acknowledged that autoworker benefits, including health care, would need to be reduced in order to alleviate the $2,000 burden of additional costs Detroit cars had that made their cars foreign counterparts did not. During the last leg of the Presidential election, Mitt Romney became unpopular in parts of Ohio for this stance. In fact, President Obama ran on the auto bailout with his Vice President claiming, “Osama Bin Laden is dead and General Motors is Alive!”
The Obama administration ended up moving forward with a plan that very much resembled the Romney Op-Ed. The Obama plan called for the heads of the car companies to step down, sought to have GM and Chrysler pursue Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, and acknowledged that auto unions would face “belt-tightening in wages, healthcare, and retirement benefits”. In the end, based on Ohio exit polling, 56% of Ohio voters approved of Obama’s auto bailout and Romney was never able to properly articulate how close his auto plan was to the President’s.
Minority Unemployment Rates & Ohio/Nevada/Colorado/Virginia
The majority of the country receives their health insurance from an employer-sponsored program. That means a job is more than just a paycheck, it’s a means to get health coverage as well. The unemployment rate for African Americans is 14%; six percentage points higher than the national average. Obama won 89% of the African American vote in Nevada, 93% of the African American vote in Virginia, and 96% of the African American vote in Ohio. The unemployment rate for Hispanics is 10%; two percentage points higher than the national average. In the battleground state of Colorado, Obama won 74% of the Hispanic vote. In Nevada Obama won 69% of the Hispanic vote. In the end, Minorities were convinced that President Obama could grow jobs that offer comprehensive benefits like healthcare better than Mitt Romney.
Abortion & Ohio
Abortion is indeed more than a religious issue. It’s a healthcare issue as well. Mitt Romney went on record vowing to defund Planned Parenthood during a campaign stop in Ohio. This was after Republican candidate, Todd Akin, interjected the phrase “Legitimate Rape” into the American lexicon justifying it as information he garnered from physicians. Overlay these two instances with Ohio exit polling and we witness that 56% of voters believe Abortion should either always or mostly be legal. As a result, Obama won 80% and 63% of those votes leaving Romney on the losing end of an important Ohio issue.
Errol Pierre is the Assistant Vice President of Product Management at a regional health insurance company focused on business development, sales, and strategy planning around Health Exchanges. He is currently pursuing a degree in Health Policy and Management with a specializing in health finance. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org