Labor

Politics Is the Issue: A Response to Robert Myers

Politics Is the Issue: A Response to Robert Myers
Public Administration Review; May/Jun86, Vol. 46 Issue 3, p261-266, 6p.

Light, P.C.
05/01/1986

Presents a response to a critique of a report on actuarial estimates for social security in the U.S., featured in the 1985 issue of the periodical "Public Administration Review." Potential impact of political pressure on the social security estimates; Controversy surrounding the use of confidentiality as a condition of research; Cause of the declining accuracy of the late 1970's and early 1980's estimates.

Social Security and the Politics of Assumptions

Social Security and the Politics of Assumptions
Public Administration Review, May/Jun85, Vol. 45 Issue 3, p363, 9p.

Light, P.C.
01/01/1985

This article addresses the importance of economic and demographic assumptions in framing the public policy process. It examines functions of such assumptions as an important aspect of government and as a new challenge for public managers. Using Social Security as a case study, the article suggests that recent fore- casts have been inaccurate for four basic reasons: (I) the social and economic environment, (2) technique, (3) assumption drag, and (4) politics. Nevertheless, the assumptions have been crucial at several key legislative turning points in recent Social Security reforms. The article reviews the impact of political pressure in three specific instances and suggests an emerging pattern in the use and misuse of assumptions. The article concludes with suggestions on how to address the importance of assumptions in the public policy process.

A Variant of the Shift and Share Projection Formulation

A Variant of the Shift and Share Projection Formulation
Journal of Regional Science, April 1975, Vol. 15, Issue 1, p29-39, 10p.

Zimmerman, R.
01/01/1975

Examines variance of the shift and share projection formulation. Use of the shift share method in explaining historical trends in regional employment; Examination of the predictive power of the variant against the standard formulation; Evaluation of alternative projection methods for industries grouped into local market and supply-oriented categories.

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