Why Do Chinese Households Save So Much?
VoxEU, August 28, 2012.
Using a dataset that covers 5 decades (1960–2009), we show that the main determinants of China's household savings rate are disposable income (measured by its reciprocal) and the old-age dependency rate. The income growth rate and young age dependency rate have a limited role. Our findings support the Keynesian saving hypothesis instead of Modigliani’s life cycle hypothesis, although precautionary saving motives are also important. We don’t find evidence that China's one-child policy or low interest rate drives the household savings rate. Both the sex ratio and the interest rate prove not significant. We show that the household saving curve is neither u-shaped nor hump-shaped, but positively sloped.
PhD-propositions in English and Mandarin Chinese
Transport, the Environment and Security: Making the Connection
Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd.
Effective means of transport are critical under both normal and extreme conditions, but modern transport systems are subject to many diverse demands. This path-breaking book uniquely draws together the typically conflicting arenas of transport, the environment and security, and provides collective solutions to their respective issues and challenges.
From a primarily urban perspective, the author illustrates that the fields of transportation, environment (with an emphasis on climate change) and security (for both natural hazards and terrorism) and their interconnections remain robust areas for policy and planning. Synthesizing existing data, new analyses, and a rich set of case studies, the book uses transportation networks as a framework to explore transportation in conjunction with environment, security, and interdependencies with other infrastructure sectors. The US rail transit system, ecological corridors, cyber security, planning mechanisms and the effectiveness of technologies are among the topics explored in detail. Case studies of severe and potential impacts of natural hazards, accidents, and security breaches on transportation are presented. These cases support the analyses of the forces on transportation, land use and patterns of population change that connect, disconnect and reconnect people from their environment and security.
The book will prove a fascinating and insightful read for academics, students, and practitioners across a wide range of fields including: transport, environmental economics, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, and terrorism and security.
Changing Fortunes - How China's Boom Caused the Financial Crisis
Ph.D. thesis, August 28, 2012.
CHANGING FORTUNES - HOW CHINA’S BOOM CAUSED THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Since the financial crisis in 2008 and the ensuing economic recession that rocked the world economy, plenty of blame has been going around. The chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, specifically singled out subprime mortgages and the Wall Street bankers that sold those mortgages. In bureaucratic jargon it is often dubbed a regulatory oversight failure. This study, however, shows that the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy at the start of the new millennium triggered the U.S. refinancing boom in 2003 and 2004, spurring personal consumption expenditures through home equity extraction. The U.S. spending binge boosted economic growth and savings in China and oil-exporting nations. The build-up of savings in China, which are heavily skewed towards fixed income assets, depressed interest rates worldwide from 2004 on. The decline in long-term interest rates accounts for the U.S. housing boom. Despite popular belief, the proliferation of exotic mortgage products can hardly be faulted for the U.S. housing boom and eventual bust.
The Fed Should Buy Stocks instead of Bonds
Financial Times Economists' Blog, August 6, 2012
The Federal Reserve may just as well be putting the cart before the horse with a third round of quantitative easing. In that case Bernanke would be wise, if he were to employ the printing presses following the FOMC’s September meeting, to buy stocks instead.
From Endeavor to Achievement and Back Again: Government's Greatest Hits in Peril
In To Promote the General Welfare: The Case for Big Government. Steven Conn, Ed., Oxford Univeristy Press
Paul C. Light
"These 10 articles from leading scholars address federal government activism in such areas as health, education, transportation, and the arts. In some areas, federal involvement has been direct; for example, while school public systems are governed locally, Washington provides about 10% of k–12 funding. Similarly, antipoverty programs, such as the New Deal’s Social Security Act and Aid for Dependent Children, have played a major role in reducing the poverty rate from around 40% in 1900 to 11.2% in 1974. At other times, Washington has exerted influence more subtly, through regulations and research. Examples include the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act, which mandated the separation of investment and commercial banking and the WWII-era research that yielded compounds to prevent and cure malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis. Further, as public policy scholar Paul C. Light points out in a fascinating concluding piece, more than two-thirds of leading governmental initiatives have been supported by both Democratic and Republican administrations. However, Light adds, the massive tax cut in 2001 “continue[s] to constrain federal investment in problem solving.” The scholars brought together by Ohio State historian Conn (History’s Shadow) persuasively demonstrate how the growth of “big government” throughout the 20th century has benefited ordinary Americans so comprehensively and unobtrusively that they have often taken it for granted."
Examining the Determinants of Nonprofit Accounting Basis Choice
Why Do Nonprofits Retain Unrestricted Net Assets? Evidence from Panel Data, and Policy Implications?
China's Reliable Rise
Project Syndicate, July 25, 2012.
if China’s official growth estimates are untrustworthy, why do world stock markets continue to respond to them?
Evaluating the Global Crisis
Public Administration Review, Volume 72, Issue 6, Pages 779 - 949, November/December 2012
Does News on Real Chinese GDP Growth Impact Stock Markets?
Journal for Applied Financial Economics, 2011, 21, 61–66.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in China follows a random walk. Also, it has often been suggested that China ‘cooks its books’, that is to say that governmental officials in China manipulate economic statistics, such as GDP growth rate to present the outside world a rosy picture (Foreign Policy, 3 September 2009). If such unreliability is known to stock traders, news on GDP should not impact stock market fluctuations or their volatility. We test this hypothesis for 12 series with daily stock market returns for the years 2006 to and including 2009.
Affirmative Action for Europe
In Le Monde on December 2, 2005.
The violence in France, fueled by staggering unemployment and ruthless policing, reflects the utter failure of the French model of social integration. But violence elsewhere in Europe, such as the London bombings of July and the brutal murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh on the streets of Amsterdam in November 2004, had already made Europe’s failure to integrate its minorities painfully clear.
Europe's Leisure Trap
By Project Syndicate on June 23, 2006.
Black Friday in the United States traditionally is the day after Thanksgiving that signals the start of the holiday season sale. At daybreak, people line up before department stores to get the special “early bird” bargains. In Europe, black Saturday falls in the last weekend of July, when the French and other Europeans set off in droves for their Mediterranean holiday destinations, and highways get jammed with traffic.
Beyond the Gender Gap
By Project Syndicate on January 31, 2007.
Last Spring, The Economist trumpeted “womanpower” as the driving force for the world economy. But if Europe’s economy is to become more competitive and innovative, it is not enough that women enter the labor market in droves. To reap the full fruits of women’s talents, they must be in more top jobs, too, both in the public and private sector.
China is Buying Europe
In The International Herald Tribune on July 29, 2007.
It's quite fascinating to see the way authoritarian regimes make use of the possibilities free markets offer to expand their global reach. While the West thought that free trade was going to spread democracy across the world, the opposite seems to be happening now.
Wars against Women
By Project Syndicate on May 26, 2008.
Truth is often said to be the first casualty in wartime. But if the real truth is told, it is women who are the first casualties. In conflict zones, the United Nations children’s agency UNICEF recently observed, sexual violence usually spreads like an epidemic. Whether it is civil war, pogroms, or other armed conflicts, all too often women’s bodies become part of the battlefield. The victims of large-scale sexual atrocities range from baby girls to old women.
The Cost of the Gender Gap
By Project Syndicate on August 29, 2007.
Working women throughout the world have long complained of the unfairness implied by lower pay than what men receive. But the wage disparity between men and women is more than unjust. It is also economically harmful.
Why We Must Break the Male Cartel in the Work Place
In the Financial Times on April 23, 2008.
The European Union should follow the example set by Norway and Spain and introduce European legislation for gender balance on company boards, at universities and in government. It is the best way to end the culture of gender bias and stereotyping that is still prevalent in many companies and institutions. Isn’t it time we reaped all the fruits that women have to offer?
Does Legalizing Prostitution Work?
By Project Syndicate on January 23, 2009.
Prostitution is virtually the only part of the personal services industry in the Netherlands that works. One can’t get a manicure in Amsterdam without booking an appointment two weeks in advance, but men can buy sex anytime – and at an attractive price.
Going Dutch? Not So Fast!
In The New York Times on May 24, 2009.
In his essay “Warming to the European way” (May 2), Russell Shorto sounds the praises of the Dutch welfare state. However, the Dutch welfare state isn’t as beneficial to low-skilled immigrants as it is to high-skilled workers like Mr. Shorto. In fact, it has suffocated the large group of non-Western immigrants who came to the Netherlands over the past decades to seek their fortune.