J. Andrew Sinclair

J. Andrew Sinclair
Clinical Assistant Professor of Public Service

NYU | Wagner Faculty 295 Lafayette Street New York NY 10012 USA

Andy Sinclair is a Clinical Assistant Professor of Public Service at the NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public Service.

Prior to joining NYU, Sinclair spent time as Visiting Assistant Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and most recently was Research Associate at the University of Southern California. His fields of specialization are in American Politics and Political Methodology. Sinclair is currently in the final stages of completing a book with Cambridge University Press on California's new "top-two" nonpartisan primary called Nonpartisan Primary Election Reform: Mitigating Mischief.

Sinclair received his B.A. in Mathematics and Government from Claremont McKenna College and both his M.S. and Ph.D. in Social Science from the California Institute of Technology.

Semester Course
Spring 2015 PADM-GP.2902.001 Multiple Regression and Intro to Econometrics

Multiple regression is the core statistical technique used by policy and finance analysts in their work. In this course, you will learn how to use and interpret this critical statistical technique. Specifically you will learn how to evaluate whether regression coefficients are biased, whether standard errors (and thus t statistics) are valid, and whether regressions used in policy and finance studies support causal arguments.

In addition, using a number of different datasets, you will compute the statistics discussed in class using a statistical computer package, and you will see how the results reflect the concepts discussed in class. If you choose, you can do a larger data and regression project in a team.


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Spring 2015 CORE-GP.1022.002 Introduction to Public Policy

Introduction to Public Policy covers a wide range of topics, from the norms and values informing democratic policymaking to the basics of cost-benefit and other tools of policy analysis. Though emphases will differ based on instructor strengths, all sections will address the institutional arrangements for making public policy decisions, the role of various actors-including nonprofit and private-sector professionals-in shaping policy outcomes, and the fundamentals (and limits) of analytic approaches to public policy.

Note: Students who have not taken an American Government course in many years, and need to brush up on knowledge of the basic design and functions of the governmental units in the United States, are strongly encouraged to take Introduction to Governance (NONCR-0989) module prior to taking Introduction to Public Policy.


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Date Publication/Paper
2016

Sinclair, J. Andrew and Anthony Bertelli 2016. Democratic Accountability and the Politics of Mass Administrative Reorganization British Journal of Political Science. Forthcoming.

2015

Levin, Ines and J. Andrew Sinclair and R. Michael Alvarez 2015. Participation in the Wake of Adversity: Blame Attribution and Policy-Oriented Evaluations Levin, I., Sinclair, J. A., & Alvarez, R. M. (2015). Participation in the Wake of Adversity: Blame Attribution and Policy-Oriented Evaluations. Political Behavior, 1-26.
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Abstract

In this paper we investigate to what extent perceptions of economic conditions, policy-oriented evaluations, and blame attribution affected Californians’ involvement in political activities in 2010. We use a statistical methodology that allows us to study not only the behavior of the average citizen, but also the behavior of “types” of citizens with latent predispositions that incline them toward participation or abstention. The 2010 election is an excellent case study, because it was a period when citizens were still suffering the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and many were concerned about the state’s budgetary crisis. We find that individuals who blamed one of the parties for the problems with the budget process, and who held a position on the 2010 Affordable Care Act, were often considerably more likely to participate. We also find, however, that the impact of economic evaluations, positions on the health care reform, and blame attributions was contingent on citizens’ latent participation propensities and depended on the class of political activity.

Anthony M. Bertelli, John Andrew Sinclair 2015. Mass Administration Reorganization, Media Attention and the Paradox of Information Bertelli, Anthony M. and Sinclair, John Andrew, Mass Administrative Reorganization, Media Attention, and the Paradox of Information (May 16, 2015). Public Administration Review, Forthcoming; NYU Wagner Research Paper No. 2607110. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2607110
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Abstract

How does media attention influence government decisions about whether to terminate independent administrative agencies? We argue that an agency’s salience with partisan audiences has a direct effect, but a high media profile can disrupt normal government monitoring processes and obfuscate termination decisions. We evaluate our argument in the context of a recent mass administrative reorganization by the British coalition government using probit and heteroscedastic probit regression models. Evidence suggests that termination is less likely for agencies salient in newspapers popular with the government’s core supporters, but not those read by its minority coalition partner. We also find that agencies with greater overall newspaper salience as well as younger agencies have a higher error variance.

J. Andrew Sinclair, Anthony M. Bertelli, Haram Lee 2015. Media Attention and the Demise of Agency Independence: Evidence from a Mass Administrative Reorganization in Britain Bertelli, Anthony M. and Sinclair, John Andrew and Lee, Haram, Media Attention and the Demise of Agency Independence: Evidence from a Mass Administrative Reorganization in Britain (May 16, 2015). Public Administration, Forthcoming; NYU Wagner Research Paper No. 2607087. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2607087
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Abstract

When administrative agencies are terminated, do they quietly fade from public view? On the one hand, the terminated agencies may have weak issue networks and agency reputations allowing them to lose public salience. On the other hand, strong issue networks and agency reputations may mean that termination increases attention to the agencies, making the government pay the cost of public attention generated by the actors within the issue networks. We assess these competing claims by using a unique dataset from a recent mass reorganization of independent agencies in Britain as well as data capturing media attention to agencies in major national newspapers. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the agencies subject to termination experience reductions in the number of media coverage in major newspapers, disappearing from public view during the post-decision reform period.

Sinclair, J. Andrew 2015. Winning from the Center: Frank Bigelow and California's Nonpartisan Primary California Journal of Politics and Policy, 7(1). 2015.
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Abstract

In 2012, California first used a nonpartisan “top-two” primary. Early academic studies of the effects statewide have produced mixed results on the key question: does the new law make it possible for more moderate candidates to win? This study focuses on one particular California State Assembly race, District 5, from 2012 to assess the operation of the new law in detail in one same-party runoff. Republicans Frank Bigelow and Rico Oller competed against each other in both rounds; Bigelow, the more moderate Republican, won the general election. This study uses the internal Bigelow campaign polling data (three surveys of 400 voters each) to assess the dynamics of the race, revealing not just voter attitudes towards the candidates but the reasons for Bigelow campaign choices. The results suggest that although little strategic behavior took place in the first round, voters, including Democrats, tended to support the spatially logical candidate in the general election – with the advantage to Bigelow, the candidate closer to the median voter of the district.