Examining the Effect of Upzoning on Neighborhood Demographic Trends

In the past two decades, the New York City government has responded to growing housing demand and affordability by changing the land use zoning of certain areas to allow for higher-density residential development (a process called “upzoning”). Analyzing the disparate impact of upzonings on different populations is crucial to understanding whether the city is increasing its potential housing supply at the cost of displacing low-income, non-white residents. Most studies on this subject have been qualitative or rely on the use of only descriptive statistics as opposed to empirical methods. The Capstone team’s research examined the potential displacement of non-white residents following 12 city-initiated rezonings between 2000 and 2007, controlling for racial and housing covariates. Using a difference-in-difference research method to formulate conclusive analysis, the treatment group included upzoned census tracts, and the counterfactual group included census tracts with a similar demographic makeup and historic trends, but were not upzoned.