OPPORTUNITY ZONES AND CRIME IN NYC

The Capstone Team used geographic regression discontinuity to understand the causal relationship between Opportunity Zone (OZ) designation and crime in New York City. The Team restricted its study to the effect of OZ designation on arrests and complaints for property and violent crime. In its final report, the Team reported its initial findings that suggest OZ designation has a limited effect on property and violent crime. In every quarter for two years after the policy change, a small and statistically insignificant difference occurs in property and violent crime arrests and complaints between census blocks in OZs and adjacent census blocks just outside OZs. However, when adjusted for seasonality, including fixed effects for the quarter when the crime incident occurred, the team observed a statistically significant pattern of increasing violent crime arrests and decreasing violent crime complaints inside OZs. However, the effect of OZ designation on violent crime complaints loses statistical significance in the second year and using the polynomial model. There is no such observable pattern for property crime arrests or complaints.