Caseload Change: An Exploratory Study

The national caseload of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (since 1996, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families) rose 34 percent between 1989 and 1994,then fell 50 percent through June 1999 (data from U.S. Administration for Children and Families). These are the sharpest changes in the history of the program. They sparked a heightened interest in caseload dynamics. The simple model I report here reveals more about the policy causes of change than prior studies.