Why Falling Confidence in Government May Sway Voters in 2024

Dr. Paul C. Light, NYU Wagner's Paulette Goddard Professor of Public Service, offers the top 11 takeaways in a new survey analysis.

President Joe Biden approaches the 2024 presidential campaign with the federal government’s performance rating in decline and the public appetite for very major government reform and a smaller government on the rise, according to a report from Paul C. Light of New York University's Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. Sifting voter responses to past and recent surveys, Light’s new analysis points to 11 reasons why the government’s job on Biden's watch is likely to help shape the results of an election in which the economy and international affairs will be top concerns.

Among the takeaways, according to Professor Light, a nationally recognized expert on the federal service, are:

The federal government’s ratings for running its programs are in decline:

• According to Light’s recent public opinion surveys, 44% of respondents supported a combination of very major reform and a smaller government aimed at “dismantling” government programs;
• 27% supported a combination of a bigger government and major reform toward “expanding” programs;
• 19% supported a combination of major reform and a bigger government toward “rebuilding” programs, and
• 11% supported a combination of only some reform and a smaller government toward “streamlining” programs.

Biden’s job ratings have also fallen. Biden started his first year in office with a 50% excellent/good rating for running federal programs before dropping to 30% the next January, suggesting he “must add government reform to his accomplishments.” The number of federal agency “breakdowns” (defined as visible failures with a high degree of public interest) continues to increase rather than abate.

Light concludes that Biden must “recognize the sharp limits of government reform.” Even as he hopes for shorter lines at the Transportation Security Administration, better service from healthcare.gov, and a faster Internal Revenue Service, the “dismantlers” and “streamliners” are more likely to ignore Biden’s promise to “put people at the center of everything the government does.” Absent a significant commitment to government reform, many Americans might wonder whether being at the center of everything is too close for comfort.”

Full report and analysis is available via the Brookings Institution.